Numerical estimates of risk factors contingent on credit ratings

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Assuming a favorable or an adverse outcome for every combination of credit class and industry sector, binary string, termed as macroeconomic scenario, is considered. Given historical transition counts model dependence among credit-rating migrations, probability assigned to each the scenarios by maximizing likelihood function. Applications this distribution in financial risk analysis are suggested. Two classifications considered: 7 non-default classes with 6 sectors 2 12 sectors. We propose heuristic algorithm solving corresponding maximization problems combinatorial complexity. Probabilities correlations characterizing riskiness random events involving several reported.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Computational Management Science

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1619-6988', '1619-697X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10287-021-00405-9